October review of silicon metal: hope to rise to support the price of silicon

Ronghai Supply Chain Co., Ltd. 2023-10-26

  （一）Silicon metal market prices fell and then rose and then fell again this month, metallurgical grade rose 100-1100 yuan, chemical grade fell 1100-1500 yuan. After three months of continuous decline, silicon metal market prices have touched more enterprises cost line, more than regional silicon metal factories were forced to reduce production and stop furnace to watch the market, silicon metal prices also in the upstream and downstream expectation of rising sentiment in the upward trend, two weeks up more than 2,000 yuan. Limited by the poor consumption of the terminal, silicon metal up support weak, prices are difficult to maintain, the second half of the year began to go down.

（二） Chemical grade silicon metal market

    this month's chemical grade silicon metal market transactions are not satisfactory, June organic silicon factory overall purchase price from 20,400 yuan / ton gradually press price to 17,300 yuan / ton. However, after the market bottomed out for a short period of time, some of the silicone plants just need to purchase monthly is not full, are postponed to wait and see. Metal silicon plant offers around the synchronous rise to more than 20000 yuan / ton. Limited by the market weakness of the market operation, silicone factory shipments are not good after the accumulation of inventory DMC prices continue to dip to 20000 yuan / ton below, it is difficult to bear the price of raw materials than its product prices. With some of the organosilicon plant to reduce production overhaul, consumption of inventory, after the upstream and downstream stalemate, the transaction price slightly back. At present, some organosilicon plants at the end of the month to purchase small amounts, the price signed to 18,300-19,200 yuan / ton or so.

（三）Silicon metal next month forecast

In June, silicon metal prices rose and fell rapidly, the upstream and downstream mentality changes greatly, and the follow-up price trend how to still need to pay close attention to production consumption relationship changes, cost changes and enterprise hoarding capacity situation.

Cost side: July main production areas of Xinjiang, Sichuan, Yunnan silicon metal plant production electricity prices will be concentrated between 0.35-0.41 yuan / ton, because the production process shows a difference in unit consumption, electricity costs or a few hundred yuan price difference. Washed coal, electrodes, petroleum coke and other raw material prices or stable in the high run, the cost is high, it is difficult to fall in July silicon metal prices to the lowest point in June.

Supply and demand: the current monthly production of silicon metal has been climbing to annual high levels, or will remain at 300,000 + tons / month. Downstream silicone new projects have been put into production in the first quarter, currently able to stabilize at 85,000-90,000 tons / month consumption; polysilicon new projects into the second half of the year will also continue to increase annual production capacity of 200,000-400,000 tons, consumption will increase by 20,000-40,000 tons / month; aluminum market with domestic infrastructure and policy support or stable production trends, of course, into the high off-season in July-August to increase production is more difficult, or some factories to maintain the current low The average monthly consumption of the export market is significantly reduced, with customs data comparison can be seen this year, the average monthly export volume decreased by 6,431 tons.

In summary, the silicon metal market price is expected to stabilize after a slow decline in July.